As of the South Ossetia War, there is now a fog of fear hanging over Europe. Medvedev Russia has shown its might, and NATO nations now squirm in concern over another European war. But now, this fear may come to fruition. Why? The Mummy Problem.
We’ve all seen or heard of the “change [that] has come to America,” the victory of Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama against Republican John McCain. We’ve seen his campaign slogans, “Change we can believe in,” and, “Change we need.” But ironically, this change may not be entirely good.
There is a recognized concept called the Mummy Problem, an issue that the Democratic Party has suffered from for decades. It refers to the common role that Democrat presidents take (intentionally or accidentally) as the “mummy” of America - caring for the people in their finance, health care etc.
This is in contrast to the Republican Party’s “daddy” presidents, who typically monopolize the issue of security easily. Most famously, George W. Bush threw the American blade into the heart of the Middle East, and McCain sought to maintain troop numbers in Iraq.
Generally speaking, Republicans are voted into the Oval Office when a war arrives at the gates, and Democrats when financial troubles fall upon the nation (I would argue this is one of the reasons Obama won). However, we now face quite a dilemma – a Democrat is in office and war is potentially going to break out during his reign.
The day after the United States Election Day, President Medvedev of the Russian Federation announced the placement of short-range missiles in Kaliningrad, the largest city in a small exclave of Russia located on the Baltic coast between Poland and Lithuania. He said that this was to counter the United States missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic that were created to counter in turn the Russian attack on Georgia in the South Ossetian War.
“Mechanisms must be created to block mistaken, egoistical and sometimes simply dangerous decisions of certain members of the international community … To neutralize – if necessary – the [U.S.] anti-missile system, an Iskander missile system will be deployed in the Kaliningrad region. Naturally, we are also considering using for the same purpose the resources of Russia’s navy.”
- President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia
Medvedev expressed his hope that United States relations with Russia would improve under President Obama despite this obvious move against the United States into fully-fledged relations.
‘Course, that still leaves room for different interpretations – most likely, Medvedev envisions a future where Russia can move against any other nation with no slap on the wrist from the United States. Not the warless world that Obama envisions, no doubt.
Nations surrounding Russia have been wriggling in their seats since Medvedev ordered an attack on Georgia in August. The United States reacted with its Eastern Europe missile defence systems, and Lithuania even shifted its foreign policy around in fright.
The real scare is that both Poland and Lithuania are on the edge of NATO and the EU. Any real attack be Russia would draw most European and North American nations into a cross-continental war – especially keeping in mind Alaska’s proximity to Far East Russia.
Despite all this, there is still hope – Russia is about as reliant on the EU and US for economic success as the US and EU are reliant on Russia. According to Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Germany is Russia’s biggest import source at about 13.9% of imports, and the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany together form about 27.5% of Russian export destinations. Russia is the world’s 7th largest economy, and continues to rely on international co-operation for success.
Naturally, though, this does not necessarily stop the Kremlin from ordering an attack. Remember that Georgia was practically torn to shreds before the EU carefully persuaded Medvedev to pull back. The effort required help from EU maverick diplomat and key figure, French President Nicholas Sarkozy, along with US negotiation from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice herself.
And one of the speculated reasons for Russia’s impulsive raids is the oil pipelines that run through its target nations. Georgia had a pipeline running from the Caspian to Turkey.
Poland could be a target for the extending Odessa-Brody pipeline planned to run to Gdansk and supply the rest of Europe. Or maybe Russia dreams of claiming the entire Druzhba pipeline, a significant transmitter of oil from Russia to Germany, Ukraine, and Poland. Either are quite useful prizes for a Russian offensive.
After all, Obama isn’t going to solve the issue – his first response to the South Ossetia War was that the UN should lead the peace mission there. Someone forgot to tell him in his few years in the Senate that Russia had the power to veto any UN action. Whoops.
And then there’s the Democrat “Mummy” stereotype that Obama will likely fulfil – especially since he has a “diplomacy-over-war” approach to megathreat nations like Iran, North Korea, and yes, Russia.
So now, we wait for Obama, Russia, or perhaps a third-party, to act. And hope for the best.
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